It's Beginning to look a lot like... a White Christmas?
- Zack Richards
- Dec 17, 2017
- 3 min read
It's the question that forecasters get bombarded with every December: "Will there be a white Christmas this year?"
First, I should probably mention what the definition of a "white Christmas" actually is. While many believe snow must fall on Christmas Day to meet the requirement, a white Christmas in the United States simply means that one inch of snow is on the ground Christmas morning. It does not necessarily have to fall on Christmas Day or Christmas Eve - accumulation from a previous snow event still counts towards a white Christmas.
Historically, white Christmases are fairly common in West Virginia, with NOAA setting the historical average between 25 and 50 percent for the uplands and 10 to 25 percent everywhere else in our forecasting region.
White Christmas 2017 Forecast
Disclaimer: These forecasts are not final and should be taken with a grain of salt this far out in time. Please watch for updates as Christmastime approaches.
After a relatively snow-less season last year, many have high hopes for winter weather this Christmas season. Fortunately for those folks, there is a chance of seeing at least some impacts from a storm system that will move through in the days preceding Christmas. It appears, at least for the time being, that conditions in most of the forecast area will get to or above freezing on Christmas Day, so snow actually falling then seems unlikely. It is too early to discuss the exact timing and track, but I can show a couple of potential scenarios and discuss the impacts. The maps shown below are two model outputs depicting the snowfall accumulation on the ground
Scenario 1
(Weaker, northern track)
The latest run of the European Model has a weaker system moving nearly overtop of our forecasting area, putting a lighter swath of snow over a good part of Ohio, the Northern Panhandle and areas north of Pittsburgh. Some minor accumulation would also be likely for the mountains north of Monroe County into Pennsylvania. However, most of the lowlands, lower Ohio River Valley, and the Eastern Panhandle would receive a dusting to an inch, falling short of the requirement for a white Christmas - especially with rising temperatures likely into the morning of the 25th.
Possible Forecast in Example Cities:
Morgantown, WV
Snow begins: Sunday late PM
Worst Weather: Sunday overnight to Christmas morning
Total Accumulation: Coating
White Christmas: No
Charleston, WV
Precipitation begins: Sunday PM
Worst Weather: Sunday late PM
Total Accumulation: None
White Christmas: No
Zanesville, OH
Snow begins: Sunday PM
Worst Weather: Sunday late PM to Monday AM
Total Accumulation: 1-2 inches
White Christmas: Yes
Scenario 2
(Stronger, southern track)
The second scenario is what's currently being pushed fairly consistently by the GFS (American) Model. It has a stronger system moving on a more southward track, putting a wider swath of more substantial snowfall directly over the vast majority of our forecasting area. The GFS model also slows down the system What's important to remember is not the snowfall totals, but the shape and placement of the storm's impact path. If an event closely following this solution verifies, it would be a fairly significant event giving a white Christmas to millions of people across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic, with the exception of places south of a line running from approximately Beckley, WV to Culpepper, VA.
Possible Forecast in Example Cities:
Morgantown, WV
Snow begins: Saturday PM
Ice/Mix begins: Midnight Christmas morning
Worst Weather: Sunday AM to Sunday overnight
Total Accumulation: 4-7 inches
White Christmas: Yes (Rain falling Christmas Day)
Charleston, WV
Precipitation begins: Saturday AM
Worst Weather: Sunday PM through Sunday overnight
Total Accumulation: 1-3 inches
White Christmas: Yes (Rain falling Christmas Day)
Zanesville, OH
Snow begins: Sunday Overnight
Worst Weather: Sunday Overnight to Noon Monday
Total Accumulation: 1-2 inches
White Christmas: Yes
We'll keep track of the latest developments on this potential storm and how it may impact your holiday plans. Be sure to follow us on Facebook and subscribe to Email alerts for the most up-to-date forecast.
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